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Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. At 18/1912Z, an impulsive M1/1n was observed from Region 1401 (N16E27). At 18/1230Z, Region 1399 (S23E17) produced a B9 x-ray event. A slow-moving, partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the SSE limb, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1325Z. Model output indicated the potential for Earth impact beginning late on 22 January. New Region 1407 (N17E13) emerged on the disk as a B-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (19 - 21 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decreased during the past 24 hours from a high of about 450 km/s to a low of near 375 km/s by the end of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the majority of day one (19 January). By late on 19 January, and through day two (20 January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods. This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result of the 16 January CME. By day three (21 January), the field is expected return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 148
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  006/006-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna
A transequatorial coronal hole was detected in an earth-facing position on Monday, 24 March 2025

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