Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity was low. A C3/1n flare was observed
from Region 1444 (N19E11) at 25/0028Z. This was followed by dimming
in SDO/AIA 193 imagery north of Region 1444 at 25/0034Z. At
25/0448Z, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
emerging from the northeast limb . A C2 flare occurred at 25/0157Z
from Region 1445 (S24E52). Material was seen lifting off the
southeast limb near Region 1445 at 25/0138Z in SDO/AIA 304 imagery.
At 25/0512Z, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
emerging from the southeast limb. Neither CME is expected to be
particularly geoeffective. Region 1445 grew substantially over the
past 24 hours and was classified as an Fho type group with beta
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1446 (N23W27) was numbered
today and classified as a small Bxo type group with beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19, L=295) is
expected to return late on Day 3 (28 March), further increasing the
possibility of an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, decreased over the past 24 hours and ended the
period around 370 km/s. Bz was generally neutral.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for Days 1 and 2 (26-27 March), increasing to
unsettled to active conditions on Day 3 (28 March) as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M | 35% | 35% | 45% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
PCAF | Green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 101
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 006/005-006/005-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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