Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. There were six
C-class flares over the past 24 hours with five of these originating
from old Region 1429 (N19, L=299) which is just beginning to rotate
into view as of forecast issue time. The largest flare was a C7
that occurred at 29/0953Z and originated from old Region 1429. New
Region 1449 (S18W17) was numbered today and is a D-class spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare. Old Region 1429 will
rotate onto the visible disk, increasing the probabilities for
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (30 March - 1 April)
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 112 Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 120/130/135 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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