Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with three impulsive, low level M-class events observed
from Region 1476 (N10E63). The largest event was an M1/1n at
06/1747Z. Region 1476 has rotated further into view and is now
classified as a Fhi/beta-gamma sunspot group with an area of around
760 millionths. Three filament eruptions were also observed in the
past 24 hours, but none appear to have an earthward directed
component. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (07 - 09 May) as
Region 1476 continues to evolve and rotate further onto the visible
disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07
- 08 May) due to a solar sector boundary crossing and the possible
arrival of a CME, observed lifting off the solar disk on 05 May. A
slight increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for an
active period is expected on day three (09 May) as a corotating
interactive region, in front of a high speed solar wind stream, is
expected to arrive here at Earth.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 117 Predicted 07 May-09 May 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 06 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 007/008-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, SodankyläMurmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
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