Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1496 (N16E33)
produced an impulsive M3 flare at 03/1755Z. The flare was
accompanied by a Tenflare (320 sfu) at 03/1753Z. A Type II emission
(est 1077 km/s) was also reported at 03/1759Z. A CME was later
observed in LASCO C3 imagery departing the northeast limb at
03/1854Z. Earlier in the day, C3 imagery showed a CME departing the
southeast limb at 03/1342Z associated with a filament eruption.
Analysis is underway to determine the potential geoeffectiveness of
the CMEs. New Region 1499 (N16E50) was numbered today as a small
Dso type group with beta magnetic characteristics. All regions on
the disk were classified as simple alpha or beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(04-06 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Although the solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft
remained below 400 km/s for most of the period, the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field remaind southward from
approximately 03/0400Z until about 02/1730Z, ranging from -5 nT to
as low as -15 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with an active
period from 03/12-15Z and a minor storm period from 03/15-18Z.
Conditions returned to active levels for the last period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active levels for days one and two (4-5 June) with
a chance for isolated minor storm periods. Day three (6 June) is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to be in a geoeffective position
throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 129
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 014/020-014/027-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
Major-severe storm | 50% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
<< Go to daily overview page