Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1499 (N15E17) produced the largest x-ray event of the period with a
C4/2f at 05/2059Z. New Region 1503 (N11W38) was numbered today and
is considered a Bxo-beta type spot group. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (06-08 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to continued effects from a favorably positioned coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased from
approximately 650 km/s to 750 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bt remained stable at about 8 nT. The Bz component of
the IMF varied between +6 and -7 nT but held steady at approximately
-5 nT for the last 2 hours of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with active periods likely on day one (06
June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected
on days two and three (07-08 June) as the CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 139 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 014/018-011/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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