Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S16W65) produced
a C1 flare at 19/1335Z which was the largest event of the period.
New Region 1510 (S16E02) was numbered today and is a small bi-polar
group. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 20-22 June.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 110 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 100/090/090 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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