Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity was low. A long-duration C2 X-ray flare
occurred at 0750Z originating from past the west limb. A CME was
associated with the flare but is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet during the period (24 -26 June).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 084 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 085/085/090 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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