Viewing archive of Friday, 17 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare was observed
on the northeast limb at 17/1319Z. A coronal mass ejection (CME)
was later observed in LASCO C3 imagery emerging from the northeast
limb around 17/1354Z. An M1 flare followed at 17/1720Z from the
same vicinity. The M1 flare was accompanied by a Tenflare (140sfu).
New region 1547 (N05E21) was numbered today and classified as a Cso
type group with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1543 (N24W59)
remained the largest group on the disk and was classified as a Cko
type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels were observed during the 00-03Z synoptic period. The
remainder of the day saw quiet to active conditions. The active
period was associated with effects from a CME which occurred on 13
August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20
August) with lingering effects from a CME and the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 095 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 009/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
50 mhz F2 51AR 13932 13Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 11Strong far side CME 335Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |