Viewing archive of Friday, 21 September 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The largest x-ray event was a B8/Sf at 21/1221Z produced by Region 1573 (N18W04). The largest spot group on the solar disk, Region 1575 (N08E37), remains near 250 millionths in area with a Beta magnetic configuration. Two asymmetrical partial halo CMEs were observed in SOHO LASCO during the period. Both events were determined to be backside sourced, and are not expected to impact Earth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (22-24 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period, despite the influence of a weak coronal hole (CH) high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day 1 (22 September) as CH effects wane. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for days 2-3 (23-24 September).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Sep 117
  Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep  118/120/120
  90 Day Mean        21 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Sep  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

All times in UTC

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