Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0437Z from Region 1610 (S21W50). Analysis of SDO HMI imagery
suggested Region 1610 and 1614 (N17E18) maintained maintained their
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics during the period. Region 1614
remained the largest of the 7 spotted regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov),
with Regions 1610, 1614 and 1613 (S24E08) most likely to produce
moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at
15/0453Z. This observation was consistent with the continued influence
of a weak, negative polarity, coronal hole high speed stream. Total IMF
reached 5.7 nT at 14/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -2.2 nT at 15/1840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (16 Nov, 17
Nov, 18 Nov) as effects from the current coronal wane while a new,
positive, coronal hole becomes geoeffective on days 2 and 3 (17-18 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 141 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 021/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 007/008-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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