Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 15/0437Z from Region 1610 (S21W50). Analysis of SDO HMI imagery suggested Region 1610 and 1614 (N17E18) maintained maintained their beta-gamma magnetic characteristics during the period. Region 1614 remained the largest of the 7 spotted regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov), with Regions 1610, 1614 and 1613 (S24E08) most likely to produce moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at 15/0453Z. This observation was consistent with the continued influence of a weak, negative polarity, coronal hole high speed stream. Total IMF reached 5.7 nT at 14/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2.2 nT at 15/1840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov) as effects from the current coronal wane while a new, positive, coronal hole becomes geoeffective on days 2 and 3 (17-18 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 141
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  021/031
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  007/008-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%35%35%

All times in UTC

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