Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2/1f flare observed
at 28/2136Z from Region 1620 (S13W69). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk including newly-numbered Region 1625
(N13E50). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec) with a
chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 403 km/s at
28/2126Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (30 November) due to a CME
passage from merged CMEs observed on 26 and 27 November. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (01 December) as CME effects
subside. Quiet conditions are expected on Day 3 (02 November).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 113 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 012/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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