Viewing archive of Friday, 30 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1625 (N14E36, Dao/beta-gamma) remained the most flare-productive region with frequent low-level C-class subflares. It showed some intermediate spot decay during the period, but retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1620 (S13W81, Eai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period: a C5 at 30/1748 UTC as it approached the west limb. No significant changes were noted in the region, but analysis was hampered due to limb proximity. No significant changes were noted in Region 1623 (N08E35, Dao/beta-gamma). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be low through 03 December with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. At present, Regions 1620 and 1625 appear to be the most capable of producing isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels with no sign of the CME passage that was expected to begin around 30/0000 UTC. Solar winds were low in the approximate 326 to 363 km/s range. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 01 December with a slight chance for active levels due to CH HSS effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during 02 - 03 December as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
Class M20%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Nov 111
  Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        30 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Nov  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  007/008-004/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm25%10%05%

All times in UTC

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