Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. The activity for the past
24 hours consisted of a few, low-level B-class flares. New Region
1604 (N08E48) was assigned and is a small bipolar region. All other
regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (04-06 Nov) with a slight chance for a
an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The ACE
spacecraft observed a solar sector boundary crossing at 1153Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (04-06 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 093 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 006/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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