Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. At 07/2046Z, a C1 x-ray event was observed from an area of enhanced emission beyond the NE limb. A few B-class flares were observed during the past 24 hours from Region 1585 (S21W01). New Region 1586 (S12E66) rotated onto the disk as an H-type spot group. A 30 degree long filament, centered near S65W15, erupted during the period. SDO imagery first observed movement along the filament channel at approximately 06/2000Z with ejecta visible off the SW limb at about 07/0700Z. LASCO C2 imagery observed a partial-halo CME lifting off the SW limb first visible at 07/0812Z. Subsequent WSA-Enlil model output indicated a possible weak, Earth-directed component of this CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class activity all three days of the forecast period (08 - 10 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite measurements observed wind speeds varied between about 290 to 350 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 6 nT. Low energy particles, measured at ACE, indicated a steady rise through the period likely associated with the approaching 05 October CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels through most of day one (08 October). Late on 08 October, active levels with a chance for minor storm periods are expected due to the arrival of the Earth-directed CME observed on 05 October. On day two (09 October), continued minor storm conditions are expected early in the day, decreasing to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods as effects from the CME wane. Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on day three (10 October) due to effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream coupled with a possible glancing blow from the 07 October CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Oct 098
  Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  015/018-017/020-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%20%
Minor storm15%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%35%25%

All times in UTC

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