Viewing archive of Monday, 8 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 08 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2012 :::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::::::::::::IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. A M2 x-ray event occurred
at 08/1117Z from a region that has not yet rotated around the east
limb. Two CMEs were observed by LASCO C2/C3 coming off the east limb
early in the period, however neither are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on day 1 (9 October). Activity is forecast to increase to
low on day 2 (10 October) and low with the a chance for moderate
levels on day 3 (11 October) as the new region emerges around the
east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels before the
arrival of the CME from 05 October around 08/0445Z. At that time, a
transient passage was observed at ACE and was then followed by a
subsequent sudden impulse (21nT at Boulder) to Earths magnetic
field at 08/0515Z. Conditions increased to active levels for a sole
period, before major storm levels began and lasted for two periods
(06-12Z). The remainder of the day saw a recovery back to unsettled
and active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be at minor storm levels (G1) on day 1 (09 October) as
CME effects continue. Days 2 and 3 (10-11 October) are forecast to
be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active levels
persisting, due to a coronal hole that is expected to move into a
potentially geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 103 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 024/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 017/020-007/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
Latest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Solar Demon 3Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2146AR4046 134Aurora photography hints for those of us with smartphones 54AR4048 34
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
00:09 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.03 flare
Sunday, 30 March 2025
23:51 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.03)
23:39 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.52 flare
23:21 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.49)
23:09 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.48 flare
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/30 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 127 -27.6 |
| Last 30 days | 127 -25.7 |