Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New regions 1605 (N17E24) and 1606
(S16E45) were numbered today and are small, simple bipolar groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance of C-class flare activity on the first day (05
Nov) and a slight chance of C-class flare activity on the following
two days (06-07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 095 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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