Viewing archive of Monday, 21 January 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Region 1658 (S12W46) produced the largest flare of the period, a B4 flare, at 21/0930Z. Region 1654 (N09W88) produced two B3 flares while Region 1660 (N12W15) was fairly quiet, yet was the most magnetically complex region on the disk. It has continued to show growth in the trailer spots and extended its length from five degrees to just over seven. This region currently appears to be a Dai/Beta-Gamma region and will be the area of interest for the next few days.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at 21/0029Z. Total IMF reached 16.2 nT at 21/1513Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5.2 nT at 21/1513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jan 108
  Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 105/100/095
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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