Viewing archive of Monday, 28 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1834Z from Region 1660 (N13, L=065) which is about a day beyond West
limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29
Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at
28/0310Z and was slowly decreasing throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 098 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 100/110/120 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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