Viewing archive of Monday, 28 January 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/1834Z from Region 1660 (N13, L=065) which is about a day beyond West limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at 28/0310Z and was slowly decreasing throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 098
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 100/110/120
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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