Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
20/1111Z from Region 1678 (N11W54). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at
20/2043Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/0203Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at approximately 20/0836Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Feb, 23
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (22 Feb). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 114 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/008-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
AR4043 23Large Coronal Hole 25 176Aurora photography hints for those of us with smartphones 46Filaments and prominences 745Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1647
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/27 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 132.3 -22.3 |
| Last 30 days | 132.3 -20 |