Viewing archive of Monday, 4 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 516 km/s at
04/0219Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2116Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6261 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 114 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 112/112/110 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Currently there's no noteworthy space weather
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