Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 March 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/0754Z from Region 1686 (S14W59). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at 05/0131Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Class M30%30%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Mar 118
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 118/115/120
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  006/008-006/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm30%30%10%

All times in UTC

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