Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and three (07 Mar, 09
Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at
05/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7904 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 114 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 115/112/118 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 006/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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