Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 March 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and three (07 Mar, 09 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at 05/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7904 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M20%10%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 114
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 115/112/118
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  006/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm30%30%10%

All times in UTC

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