Viewing archive of Friday, 22 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/2204Z from Region 1692 (N09W85). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 494 km/s at
22/0239Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/2133Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1709Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 101 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 100/095/090 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 009/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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