Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 April 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 03/0943Z from Region 1708 (N10W11). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 - 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 371 km/s at 03/0122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3798 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 127
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  006/005-006/005-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%20%15%

All times in UTC

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