Viewing archive of Monday, 22 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1029Z from Region 1726 (N13W35). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (23 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 302 km/s at
21/2237Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1009Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0125Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 21/2315Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Apr, 24 Apr) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (25 Apr). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Class X | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 113 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 008/012-011/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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