Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/2236Z from Region 1760 (N12E51). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 May,
01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 468 km/s at
29/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 35365 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 May), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (01 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 104 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 30 May 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 005/005-011/018-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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