Viewing archive of Monday, 17 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0812Z from Region 1772 (S20E15). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun,
19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
17/0427Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2110Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 505 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 124 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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