Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 July 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0110Z from Region 1791 (S14W08). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul,
19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 406 km/s at
15/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1690 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jul) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 114 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 033/035 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 009/010-011/015-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (604.9 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.56 p/cm3)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.56 p/cm3)
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