Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1756Z from Region 1818 (S07W07). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug,
18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
628 km/s at 15/2048Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1153Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/1524Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 123 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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