Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 August 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 17/1824Z from Region 1818 (S07W33). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 812 km/s at 17/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Aug 125
  Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 130/130/120
  90 Day Mean        17 Aug 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  027/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  007/008-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm35%35%35%
Major-severe storm25%25%35%

All times in UTC

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