Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 September 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/1751Z from Region 1834 (N11W60). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 485 km/s at
03/2030Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/1117Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2444 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (04 Sep, 06 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 106 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 006/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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