Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 September 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/2250Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
06/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1006 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels with a chance
for unsettled to active levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 099 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 006/005-007/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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