Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 September 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 490 km/s at
14/2125Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1834Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/2002Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (16 Sep) with active levels likely
and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep)
with a chance for active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 093 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 013/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 04% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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