Viewing archive of Friday, 27 September 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep,
29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at
27/1754Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 108 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 005/005-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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