Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
01/1929Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/0803Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/1321Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu at 30/2115Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 659 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Oct), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (03 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (04 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(02 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day two (03 Oct) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 107 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 014/020-030/040-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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