Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 October 2013

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1424Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 339 km/s at 05/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 795 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct

Class M	10%	10%	10%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       06 Oct 107
  Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        06 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Oct  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	10%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	15%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	10%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar

Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Arkhangelsk

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Aalborg
Tallinn
Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Saint Petersburg, Surgut, Syktyvkar
Stockholm

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.44nT), the direction is North (13.76nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-149nT)

Latest news

Tuesday, 15 April 2025

CME arrival, G3 storm watch

Friday, 28 March 2025

X1.1 solar flare

Monday, 24 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

More news

Latest forum messages

2025/04/12-13 Filament CMEs 2025/04/16 G3 Watch 341 AR4064 2 Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1739 AR 4060 31 AR4062 32

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro