Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and likely to be
low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (07
Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
04/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 673 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 106 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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