Viewing archive of Friday, 18 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
18/1526Z from Region 1861 (S07W79). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (19 Oct) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (20 Oct,
21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at
17/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3594 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Oct, 20 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on day three (21 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 140 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 140/130/125 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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