Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 November 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
10/0514Z from Region 1890 (S12W28). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12
Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
649 km/s at 09/2105Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2019Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/2044Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 154 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 014/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-004/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, SodankyläKirkenes
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
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