Viewing archive of Monday, 25 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 25 1213 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 25 Nov 2013 until 27 Nov 2013
Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
25 Nov 2013124007
26 Nov 2013122007
27 Nov 2013122007

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1904 was responsible for most flaring activity yesterday, on November 24. Seven C-flares were attributed to this active region which is located in the NE. We expect a similar behaviour: C-flares and the possibility of an isolated M-flare. The solar wind speed is between 300 and 350 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is below 5 nT. This results in quiet geomagnetic conditions with the Kp and local K of Dourbes below 4. The small coronal hole (20 degrees N, front boundary around 20 degrees W, 10 degrees wide) might introduce a geomagnetic disturbance limited in strength and in time from late November 26 onwards.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 029, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux127
AK Chambon La Forêt004
AK Wingst000
Estimated Ap001
Estimated international sunspot number052 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 16:44 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Surgut, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Kazan, Moscow, Perm, Yaroslavl
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.16nT), the direction is moderately South (-14.28nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-150nT)

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