Viewing archive of Monday, 13 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/1633Z from Region 1953 (S18W13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (14 Jan) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
922 km/s at 13/0724Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1006Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0225Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
12/2335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16
Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 143 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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