Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
08/1833Z from Region 1967 (S13W77). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (09 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (10 Feb)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 08/0819Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 08/0010Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/2201Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 40% | 10% |
| Class X | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 172 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 160/145/140 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 016/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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