Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/1651Z from Region 1974 (S13E04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
617 km/s at 10/2205Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1133Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0354Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 906 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 172 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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