Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
646 km/s at 14/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 229 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 126 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 006/005-011/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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