Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 25 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Feb 2014	171	007
26 Feb 2014	171	017
27 Feb 2014	171	007

Bulletin

A X4.9 flare peaked Feb 25 00:49. This event occurred in NOAA AR 1990 close to the Solar East limb. This active region has lived through several solar rotations under the names AR 1967, AR1944 and AR1918. Given its current proximity to the Solar East limb, we cannot estimate well its magnetic configuration and complexity. Continued strong flaring activity would nevertheless not come as a surprise. The X4.9 flare was associated with a gradual SEP event but the (still rising) fluxes did not reach the event thresholds yet. We estimate that the 10 pfu > 10 MeV threshold will eventually be crossed in the coming days, especially if another strong event occurs, and a solar proton event is thus forecasted. The X4.9 flare was also associated with a strong & fast partial halo CME. Given the location of its source on the Solar East limb, we do not expect this CME to become geoeffective but a 'glancing blow' cannot be excluded. Another important region to follow up is the activity complex consisting of NOAA1982-Cat46 and NOAA1981-Cat45. Although this complex is shrinking in size, its magnetic complexity is increasing and major flaring is expected. Also NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50 are capable of isolated M-class flares. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 123, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	164
10cm solar flux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	117 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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