Viewing archive of Friday, 14 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
14/1021Z from Region 1996 (N16, L=051) which rotated off the east limb
yesterday. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at
14/0523Z but was generally around 450 km/s. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
14/1056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1258Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 144 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 006/008-008/005-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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