Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 May 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 19 2225 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/2110Z from Region 2071 (S11E80). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 367 km/s at
19/0710Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/0927Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0946Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 117 Predicted 20 May-22 May 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 19 May 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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