Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 May 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 21 2225 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2014 *****CORRECTION FOR MAX WIND SPEED*****IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0138Z from Region 2071 (S12E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 348 km/s at
20/2206Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1752Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 21/1827Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 May, 23 May)
and quiet levels on day three (24 May).
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 114 Predicted 22 May-24 May 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 21 May 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (604.9 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.56 p/cm3)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.56 p/cm3)
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