Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/1152Z from Region 2104 (S10E64). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul,
02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
394 km/s at 29/0313Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/2030Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0011Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Jun, 01 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (02 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 126 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 130/130/140 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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